Lake Balkhash

What’s happening: Lake Balkhash has the risk of becoming the new Aral Sea

Geography

• Located in arid east-central Kazakhstan. 

• The largest in Central Asia and the fifteenth-largest in the world. 

• 605 kilometres long.

• Surface area changes depending on the water accumulation: at the beginning of the 20th century the lake’s area was between 18,000-19,000 square km. However, recently the lake’s surface area was about 16,400 square km. 

• Unique degree of mineralization: the western basin’s water is fresh, while the eastern one’s is salty. 

• Diverse flora and fauna: 12/120 species of birds that inhabit the lake’s region are listed as endangered and the lake has around 20 species of fishes.

• The Ile River is the main inflow of the water in the western basin contributing 80-90% of the total influx. 

• Biggest threat: hydroelectric project 

Why this matters

Balkhash Lake is important for national water security, biodiversity and economic progress of the country.

How drastic are the changes?

A global management consulting firm McKinsey has marked Balkhash as an area for future research and they have calculated that Lake Balkhash would have water shortages of 1.9 billion cubic meters in 2030. The existing technology and innovations won’t prevent the lake’s degradation and this will have irreversible effects.

In the 1990s the emission level in the area reached 280–320 thousand tonnes per year, depositing 76 tonnes of copper, 68 tonnes of zinc and 66 tonnes of lead on the surface of the lake. Unfortunately, the situation has worsened with the emissions doubling.

Before the 1970s the salinity was less than 1.5%, but after the diversion of Ili River salinity was above 2%, which made it undrinkable (Petr, 1992) 

Drivers of crisis

• Irrational use of water by Kazakhstan and China. Since about the 1970s Balkhash has been getting shallow and people predict that it will be the next Aral Sea. 

• Ile River’s water is used at a hydropower plant at Kapshagay and cotton farming in China. Hence, Ile River has been diverted into more hydropower projects leading to decreased influx in water in Balkhash. 

• The mining at the Balkhash Mining and Metallurgy Plant is another factor that has been negatively affecting the lake. 

• Climate change and rising temperatures are seen as one of the main threats. As temperatures rise the evaporation increases. Lake Balkhash is not a deep lake, the average depth is about 6 metres and increased evaporation could be detrimental for it. 

Consequences

• The annual catch in 1952 was 20 thousand tonnes. Later it reached 30 thousand tonnes by the 1960s but in the 1990s the production fell to 6,600 tonnes per year. As a result, a lot of families have lost their incomes and migrated.

“If you can’t catch fish, there is no living for you here,” fisherman Bauyrzhan Altaev

• Air quality of the region is below average with PM2.5 3.7 times higher than the WHO guideline, this affects residents’ health on a daily basis. 

• Groundwater in some villages contains heavy metals. For instance, mineralization up to 6× higher, uranium 2× higher than Kazakh standards(Nurtazin et al., 2020).

Possible solutions 

• Creating a law and legislation against polluting, poaching and overusing the water.  

• Creating guidelines for the firms and countries on how to use the water. 

• Reaching an water-sharing agreement with China 

• Guidelines and restriction on mining in the region and decrease water use for energy supply and agriculture 

• Modernize irrigation systems and pipelines 

• Post updates about the ecological situation in the district and promote transparency.